行为数据情报比以往的信用记录更能揭示风险

Corporate credit continues to be strongly linked to vintage and past credit history. 在一个被大流行颠覆的世界里, this does not cut it anymore since past models are no longer predictive of future performance. 事实上,现在最重要的是行为.

Covid之前(BC)和Covid之后(AC)

商业贷款从一开始就是由关系驱动的. Regulatory mandates on information sharing as part of due diligence have indeed bring order to decision making. 然而, 就像人际关系一样, it takes time and effort to build trust and gain access to non-regulated information that is also equally crucial for lenders to make more accurate decisions on whom to lend and how much. While credit bureaus have helped bridge the information gap in the last two decades, they have only increased the dependence of lending decisions on the particular sliver of insights stemming from credit history.

不幸的是, 向共同基金行业借款, 过去的信用表现不能预测未来的信用表现. Throw in a pandemic of such epic proportions that the passage of time is itself cleaved into “Before Covid” (BC) and “After Covid” (AC) eras (witness 科塔克马辛德拉银行’s FY20年度报告). What we get is the scenario where financial institutions are left with credit decisioning models that have little value in the AC era since all their accumulated knowledge has been from the BC era. 此外, 因为AC时代是最近才出现的, 没有多少信用历史可谈,可以在上面重新建立.

新车型

As companies begin to step away from the more traditional principles and practices of collecting customer behavioural insights. 在这个大流行后的AC时代, the need of the hour is for new credit decisioning and risk assessment models that incorporate an understanding of a client’s business that goes beyond its use of prior credit facilities.

由于多种原因,压力因素在各个部门之间存在很大差异. 例如,旅行 & 物流部门受到打击,由于下降的惠顾. The MSME sector as a whole suffered from depressed expenditure in and poor collections from their BC-era client base.

Business is no longer “as usual” as expansion plans have been curtailed bringing down associated need for new credit and deferment of capex projects. The focus on controlling costs has brought to the fore actions pertaining to rationalizing use of working capital. 这种变化的幅度也因行业而异. Such a business climate favours certain types of credit products that result in specific risk accumulation.

Supply chains have become upended due to not just the pandemic but also global trade policies and regional geo-political developments. Business entities that heavily ride on cross-border trade be it for import of raw materials or export of finished goods / services are impacted significantly. 例如,美 & wellness salons use a number of Chinese equipments and are primarily dependent on footfalls, 这两者在过去的一年里都受到了严重的影响.

行为的情报

It is becoming increasingly pertinent for businesses to utilise advanced tools that are capable of providing more intuitive and tangible information about customers. The need of the hour is holistic information about the business from the present that aids in decision making across the credit lifecycle. 事实上, such information should encompass the various aspects of the business which together reflect the functioning health of the business. Much like an individual’s behaviour can be assessed by doctors for symptoms of underlying malaise, 商业行为提供了关键的输入.

The insights that are generated from behaviours is referred to as behaviour intelligence. Companies behave in different forums differently but do exhibit patterns that are useful for risk assessment. 例如, a company that has frequent tiffs with the law as witnessed by the number of cases disposed or in pendency can be considered as a riskier proposition than one which has had a low case count.

合规行为提供了许多相当准确的风险指标. 公司向 MCA 和ROC揭示了这种行为模型中所必需的结构信息, but unfortunately such information is not diligently digitized in a manner that is easily readable by a machine. Artificial intelligence (AI) techniques can help extract usable information even from such notoriously difficult sources though.

向税务机关强制申报纳税申报单.g. GST)和劳工组织(例如.g. 雇员公积金(Employee Provident Fund)提供了对企业健康状况有意义的见解. 例如,频繁的延迟 TDS 与及时付款相比,申请可能意味着流动性问题.

最重要的是, lending institutions such as banks that also provide business operations products are sitting on a treasure trove of behavioural data. 多年来,核心银行系统一直在记录交易. 通过挖掘这些交易, modern AI algorithms can unearth behavioural insights that are able to systematically build up a true picture of a client’s business. 然后比较公元前和公元时期的商业, new stress factors can be rapidly surfaced resulting in both timely risk alerts as well as emergent opportunities for new business.

In summary, lenders need to look beyond past credit history to make credit decisions. Business behaviours have to be understood holistically, especially in this post-pandemic era. 好消息是,银行内部已经有了必要的数据, 外部数据在必要时增加丰富性. Technologies too have rapidly evolved to accelerate this new dawn of decisioning models. What remains is for the leaders in the lending institutions to change their mindset and adopt such innovation.

作者是Rangarajan Vasudevan, 创始人 & 首席执行官TheDataTeam

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